Correlated Event Contracts and Portfolio Risk on Prediction Platforms
Correlated bets can lock capital and hide concentration risk across prediction markets.
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Correlated bets can lock capital and hide concentration risk across prediction markets.
The IRS hasn't ruled on exchange winnings.
Ticket counts and dollar handle tell different stories, and the gap between them is the signal.
Structural differences between sportsbooks and exchanges can turn paper profits into real losses.
Order book data reveals professional betting activity that traditional sportsbooks actively hide.
Fee differences between exchanges can swing profitability more than most bettors realize.
Order book depth signals direction in thin prediction markets, but read it like rumor, not gospel.
Latency gaps between displayed odds and actual execution are where sharp bettors extract real money.
Spread costs separate winning bettors from losing ones in ways most casual traders never realize.