Order Book Depth as a Leading Indicator in Event Markets
How order book depth signals price moves in prediction markets, if you know what to ignore.
Mei-Ling Tso
Section
Prediction Markets
8 stories in Prediction Markets.
Settlement Rules and Edge Cases in Sports Event Contracts
How sportsbooks and exchanges decide what counts as a valid bet outcome.
Ignacio Rondon
Liquidity Concentration Around Major Sporting Events
In-play betting amplifies money flows during scheduled events into unprecedented spikes.
Renata Kowalczyk
In-Play Price Volatility on Sports Event Contracts
Latency masquerades as information, and sharp bettors profit from the gap.
Mei-Ling Tso
Implied Probability vs True Probability in Event Contracts
Market prices embed behavioral bias that structural fixes can't eliminate.
Darnell Boateng
Bid-Ask Spread Dynamics on Betting Exchanges
Spreads determine whether patient makers profit or impatient takers lose money.
Mei-Ling Tso
Automated Market Makers in Sports Prediction Markets
Surging sports betting volume reveals which AMM designs hold up under live-game volatility.
Ignacio Rondon
How Event Contract Prices Are Set at Launch
Markets face their hardest test on day one, before trading reveals what anyone actually thinks.
Ignacio Rondon